On November 4, Americans will vote on who they want to become the country's 44th president. But while almost all polls have the Democrat candidate Barack Obama edging ahead of his Republican counterpart John McCain, it looks as though the insurance industry's wishes for who they want to succeed George Bush may be at odds with the majority of the population.
At the start of last month McCain had managed to raise $1.62m for his campaign through insurance-related contributions compared with Obama's $1.19m. McCain's 57.6% of the market is, perhaps, a sign that the industry is throwing the bulk of its weight behind him.
However, the 57.6% figure is well short of the 79.2% share enjoyed by Bush in the 2004 election. This would appear to suggest that the issue of who the insurance industry would like to win is not as clear-cut as in previous years.
Both candidates have taken differing views on a number of issues which have also divided the industry. So how would the industry be affected by either Obama or McCain emerging victorious?
One of the most contentious issues has been the possible creation of a federal backstop for state catastrophe funds, a proposal supported by Obama but opposed by McCain. The idea has proved just as divisive among insurers.
McCain has also made public his backing for an optional federal charter proposal while his rival has yet to favour either side of that argument.
Another controversial issue on the political radar is that of offshore insurance hubs such as Bermuda. Obama has suggested he would crack down on these tax havens. This could well win him favour with WR Berkley's chief executive officer Bill Berkley who is a well-publicized critic of Bermuda, where he claims firms can avoid tax through internal reinsurance to their US subsidiaries.
"At least in terms of those that are willing to part with money, the contributions are running in favour of McCain but whether that represents the totality of sentiment within the insurance industry is very hard to say," Bob Hartwig, president of the Insurance Information Institute, told Reactions.
"But you have Barack Obama saying that he gets economic advice from Warren Buffett, who obviously owns some insurance companies. People have their own political views, as do people who work for insurance companies, but I think it's fair to say that historically it has been the case that more of the contributions have gone to Republicans rather than Democrats."
Blain Rethmeier, senior vice-president for public affairs at the American Insurance Association, adds: "We, as an association, don't have a particular favourite candidate and we choose not to give to either's campaign. But we have relationships with both campaigns and try to provide expert advice on a bipartisan basis."
Hartwig insists that no matter who is the next man in the White House, they will have a big role to play in shaping the future of the insurance industry, with regulation for the markets set to be tightened in the wake of the global financial crisis.
"The reality is that no matter who is in power, the whole financial services industry is in for significant regulation next year and some of that will be directed towards insurance firms," he said. "Both candidates have been talking about Wall Street and they have been highly critical of banks and insurance companies and so on."
He continues: "Whatever regulation is approved has to be appropriate. It should not be unduly onerous and it should be pro-competitive. The other part of it is to educate members of Congress and others that insurers were not at the root of this problem – they were not the transmission mechanism.
"There has not been any insurance company that has gone under as a result of this. AIG had its rescue package from the feds but even the roots of that problem were not in insurance subsidiaries. It was a London-based financial products subsidiary engaged in non-insurance activities that created a liquidity crisis at the holding company level.
"Insurers are going to point to the fact that, not only did they not start this problem, but that they managed their way through it with their operating model the most intact of any segment of the financial services industry. They can point to the large investment banks which have either gone, merged or converted to commercial banks.
"There have been 13 bank bankruptcies so far this year with more to come. If you compare that with the experience of insurers, who have had to take some write-downs and exposure in their portfolio, it has proven to be far more manageable."
Rethmeier adds: "It's all but determined that the next Congress and the next administration is going to have to deal with some pretty important issues relating to the industry. It's clear that the policy makers in the Treasury and the White House are thinking about effective solutions to modernize the regulatory environment.
"Both candidates will take a thoughtful approach – that you can be sure of because we are approaching a critical time in this nation's history."