As of 00:00 UTC Friday, 12 March, the centre of tropical storm Nineteen ( as yet un-named) was located near to 10.6S 177.2W in the southwest Pacific Ocean, approximately 560 miles (900 km) north west of Pago Pago and around 700 miles (1,100 km) north northeast of the Fiji capital Suva. According to the Joint Typhoon Warning Centre (JTWC), at this time the system had maximum sustained winds of approximately 40 mph (65 km / hr), classifying the system as a tropical storm on the Saffir-Simpson Scale. Over the past 6 hours Tropical Storm Nineteen has tracked towards the west with a forward speed of 8 mph (13km/h). Forecasts suggest that the system will track towards the southwest over the next few days, bringing the storm directly over the Fijian Island of Vanua Levu on Monday, 15 March. Favorable environment conditions consisting of sea surface temperatures around 30 C and low vertical wind shear are likely to cause the system to steadily intensify over the next couple of days. The JTWC is forecasting that Tropical Storm Nineteen will reach the equivalent of a category 3 storm on the Saffir-Simpson Scale by Monday morning, around the time it is due to hit Vanua Levu. Under its current track the main Fijian island of Viti Levu will be affected by tropical storm winds. Should the track deviate westward from what is currently forecast then this island is at risk of a more direct impact, as are the resort islands of the Mamanuca group to the east of Viti Levu. Fiji’s Meteorological Service is monitoring the tropical system which is moving towards the island group. The JTWC has issued a tropical cyclone warning, for nineteen. RMS will continue to monitor this storm and will update this Cat Activity on Monday, 15 March.

On Thursday, 11 March two large aftershocks of the Mw8.8 Chile earthquake have struck the Libertador O’Higgins region of central Chile. Firstly, a strong magnitude 6.9 (moment magnitude) earthquake occurred at 14:40 UTC (11:40 am local time). The USGS have released a preliminary fixed depth estimate of 22 miles (35 km) and a preliminary epicentral location of 34.251S, 71.889W, approximately 65 miles (105 km) west of Rancagua, Chile; 80 miles (135 km) north-northwest of Talca, Chile; 85 miles (135 km) south-southwest of Valparaiso, Chile; and 90 miles (145 km) southwest of Santiago, Chile. According to the USGS Shakemap, the region closest to the epicenter experienced intensity VII (very strong) shaking on the Modified Mercalli Intensity (MMI) scale. Towns that may have been affected by this level of shaking include La Estrella, Litueche, Navidad, Marchihue, Reten Llico, Rapel, Poblacion and Pichilemu. Further away from the epicentral region, according to the USGS, Santa Cruz experienced intensity VI shaking, while Rancagua and Talca may have experienced intensity V shaking. At this early stage it is not thought that Valparaiso, Vina del Mar and Santiago have experienced significant shaking from this earthquake. Initial reports are of windows rattling in the capital Santiago, but there have been no reports of damage. 15 minutes later the same region was struck by a strong magnitude 6.7 (moment magnitude) earthquake. This second earthquake occurred at 14:55 UTC (11:55 am local time) and the USGS have assigned a preliminary fixed focal depth of 22 miles (35 km) and a preliminary epicentral location of 34.263S, 71.782W, 60 miles (95 km) west of Rancagua; 80 miles (130 km) north of Talca; and 85 miles (135 km) south of Valparaiso; and 85 miles (135 km) southwest of Santiago. The location of the epicenter of the second earthquake is approximately 6 miles (10 km) from the first. According to the USGS ShakeMap, a similar pattern of shaking intensity occurred as in the first earthquake, with the towns of La Estrella, Litueche, Marchihue and Poblacion experiencing up to intensity VI shaking. Immediate damage reports are scarce; however RMS will continue to monitor the media and liaise with our Reconnaissance team in Chile and update this Cat Activity report when further information comes to light.

On Wednesday, 10 March, and Thursday, 11 March a low pressure system crossed central Arkansas, United States. According to the US National Weather Service the system brought thunderstorms with golf ball-sized hail and three tornadoes to the central region. The National Weather Service has reported that the first of the three tornadoes occurred on Wednesday at 18:30 CST, northwest of Benton in Saline County, Arkansas. Reports from the state Emergency Management Service are that the tornado damaged 22 homes. At 20:25 CST a second tornado occurred near to Center Hill in White County; damaging nine homes and injuring one person. A third tornado occurred near to Pearson, in Cleburne County, shortly after 21:00 CST and early reports indicate that several homes have been badly damaged and at least three people have been injured. Following the tornadoes power outages were estimated to have affected around 1,300 homes. After a quiet start to the US tornado season, with only one tornado recorded in February – the first time since records have begun- the tornado season is now underway. Forecasts predict that given the El Nino winter in the US, there is potential for the tornado season to be extremely active. The tornado watch for Arkansas that was issued on Wednesday has now been removed (as has the severe weather warning).

Shortly after 02:30 UTC on Monday, 8 March an earthquake of magnitude 6.0 (moment magnitude) occurred in the Elazig province of eastern Turkey. The United States Geological Survey (USGS) has reported a fixed focal depth of 7.5 miles (12 km) and an epicentral location at 38.88N, 39.99E, close to the village of Basyurt; 45 miles (70 km) east northeast of Elazig; and 390 miles (625 km) east of the Turkish capital, Ankara. The earthquake struck in the mountainous steppe region, causing damage and death in six villages close to the town of Kovancilar. The vulnerable structures of traditional mud-brick construction have been particularly affected, and in two villages reports indicate complete collapse of such housing. Cement and stone structures, though limited in this region, have suffered little damage. Turkish officials have released a death toll from the earthquake of 51. RMS has posted a full Cat Update report containing an updated damage report along with accumulation information and modelling parameters to allow clients to assess their likely losses from this earthquake. This report can be viewed via the link on the left hand side of the page.

On Saturday, 6 March, a super cell thunderstorm brought hailstones, strong winds and flash flooding to Melbourne, Australia, severely damaging properties and cars, causing power outages and forcing the cancellation of sporting events in the city. In what is being described as the “storm of the century” the city received up to 3 inches of rain in approximately 30 minutes, accompanied by winds of up to 62 mph (100 km/hr). According to the Australian Bureau of Meteorology, hailstones were reported at 2 inches (50 mm) in diameter. The entire metropolitan area was affected by the storm, though it is understood that Melbourne’s eastern and southeastern suburbs were worst hit. Reports are of widespread damage to property roofs in terms of broken tiles, broken glass and a lot of skylight damages. Isolated structural damaged caused as a result of treefall from the storm also exist. In terms of vehicle damage, broken glass and dented vehicles have been caused from the hailstones, whist numerous underground car parks have been flooded. Damage to privately owned property, will become clearer over the next few days as individuals return to their homes following the State’s Labor Day holiday weekend. There are however no reported fatalities or serious injuries from the storm. Reports indicated that the National Gallery of Victoria in Melbourne city centre has suffered flooding, and that the Docklands Stadium (Telstra Dome) in Melbourne Docklands has suffered severe water damage. The Alfred Hospital, the oldest hospital in the city, has reported suffering leaks over the weekend and the roof of the city’s Southern Cross railway station has been significantly damaged by hailstones. In a statement given by the Victorian premier, John Brumby, it is understood that 11 families in Melbourne and 4 families in the east of the state of Victoria have had to be relocated from their damaged homes. At the height of the storm 100,000 homes were without power, and 100 traffic lights were out in the city, resulting in traffic chaos. An Aussie Rules matched had to been cancelled as a result of the flooding, as too the horse racing at Flemington Race Course. The Insurance Council of Australia (ICA) has invoked its Catastrophe Coordination Arrangements – it declared the storm a catastrophe merely two hours after the event - meaning insurance claims can be lodged even if policy documents have been lost or destroyed by flood. It is expecting insurance claims from the weekend storms to reach into the hundreds of millions of Australian dollars. Reports from Melbourne expect the number of claims to reach 40,000. (The insurer RACV has of Sunday evening already received 3,000 claims). The Australian Bureau of Meteorology has issued a warning for further violent storms in Melbourne over the next few days.

On Friday, 5 March 2010, RMS has released a loss estimate for Windstorm Xynthia. For more information, please see the latest Cat Update report via the link on the left hand side of the page.

Shortly after 00:00 UTC on Thursday, 4 March an earthquake of moment magnitude (Mw) 6.4 stuck in the mountainous region of southern Taiwan. The USGS have reported a focal depth of 14.4 miles (23.1 km) and an epicentral location at 22.91N, 120.82E; 40 miles (65km) east northeast of Kao-hsiung ; 155 miles (250km) south-southwest of the capital Tai-pei. The USGS ShakeMap shows that areas in the immediate vicinity of the earthquakes epicenter to have experienced strong shaking of V on the Modified Mercalli Intensity (MMI) scale, though the population exposed to this shaking is only 200. Kao-hsiung (Taiwan’s second largest city) experienced shaking of IV MMI, where the potential for damage is at maximum light – to both vulnerable and earthquake resistant structures. The majority of the island experienced shaking of II to III MMI. Some minor damage to property has been reported, and dozens of people were injured during the earthquake. Undersea internet cables were damaged by the quake, resulting in disruptions to communications in and around the south on Thursday and Friday, though services have now been restored. Additionally there are reports of temporary power outages. Online reports are of a high speed train being dislodged from its tracks (no causalities have been reported from the incident) and of transportation disruption - rail services in southern and central Taiwan have been suspended, as has the subway system in Kao- hsiung city. Additionally, two of the world’s largest contract computer chipmakers reported a 36-hour production delay in their facilities in Tainan. The earthquake also ignited at least 5 fires according to media reports, including a large fire in a textile factory in Tainan (a town close to the epicenter). Taiwan, through its location on the pacific Ring of Fire, is prone to earthquakes and often when they occur in this region landsides are triggers which contribute to loss. There are unconfirmed reports of landslides in Kaohsiung county, southwest of the earthquake’s epicenter. The earthquake is understood to have occurred in the region that was particularly affected by Typhoon Morakot in August 2009. RMS will continue to monitor damage reports from the region.

Following the M8.8 earthquake in Chile on Saturday, 27 February, 2010 RMS reconnaissance teams have been surveying the damage in Chile and investigating the impacts from this event. On Friday, 12 March RMS has released a third reconnaissance report detailing the latest findings from our ground teams. On Wednesday, 10 March the team visited Concepción, the closest city to the epicenter. The team found the city to be functional, but the social environment is more severe than anything observed in Chile up to this point. Supermarkets are all closed, there are soldiers at every gas station, small retail stores sell goods through gates, there are long lines at banks, hotels are almost impossible to find, the curfew is still in effect and people are living in tents. Life in Concepción is not chaotic, but it is far from normal. The infrastructure in Concepción suffered heavy losses. Several important roadways collapsed and the temporary solutions result in heavy traffic delays. Much of the city lacks water and primary sanitation. Electricity and communication services are intermittent or non-functional in some areas and as a result businesses in this region will suffer heavy losses associated with business interruption. Damage to roadways and ports, coupled with congestion at the airport, impedes the import and export of materials and goods. Non-structural and contents damage, which occurred to some extent in essentially every structure in the area, will leave many businesses closed for months. In combination with the modelling that RMS has been doing since the earthquake occurred, this valuable reconnaissance information is feeding into our latest understanding of the total impact of this event in terms of economic and insured losses. RMS will be providing detailed insight into our view of the losses on Tuesday, 16 March as we continue to understand more about the huge uncertainties associated with this event. The latest reconnaissance report is available in the 'What's New' section of the latest Cat Update.

Parts of the UK have been affected by flooding from heavy rain and strong winds over the weekend, a situation expected to worsen as a broad band of heavy rain, accompanied by strong winds, sweeps across the south of the country. As of 09:00 UTC Sunday, 28 February, The Environment Agency has 96 flood watches in place across England and Wales, and 3 flood warnings for the rivers River Nene, River Ouse and River Derwent, along the east and northeast of the country. The Scottish Environment Agency has two flood watches in place. The UK Met Office has reported 0.98 inches (25 mm) of rainfall in northern England and 1.18 inches (30 mm) in southern England over the last 24 hours. It is forecasting the southern portion of the UK to receive a further 0.4 to 0.8 in inches (10 to 20 mm) over the remainder of the weekend. Satellite radar images show that heavy rainfall is expected in association with Xynthia, an intense low pressure system which will affect the southern portion of the country through Sunday, 28 February. The Met Office has issued a severe weather warning for London and the southeast of England. Heavy rainfall, falling on saturated ground, has caused flooding and the dramatic increase of river levels, particularly in the east of the country. In Suffolk roads have been flooded and one person has been killed in North Yorkshire when her car was swept away in flood waters. Homes and businesses in low lying areas are particularly at risk, and coastal areas where the strong winds associated with Xynthia combined with high spring tides place areas here at high risk of flooding. Forecasts show the band of heavy rain associated with the low pressure system will cross British Isles by Sunday evening. Forecasts for the UK for next few days predict a period of dry weather with light winds, following the storms.

Beginning Thursday, 25 February, a powerful low pressure system that moved northeast along the east coast of the U.S, has brought heavy snow, strong winds and the potential for coastal flooding across several northeastern states, including New York. The National Weather Service has reported snowfall accumulations of up of 28 inches in parts of Massachusetts and recordings of 12 inches (300mm) and 38 inches (1,000 mm) in Pennsylvania and Vermont respectively. Whilst in parts of interior New York State accumulation could reach up to 30 inches (760 mm) by Saturday, 27 February. The weight of the snow associated with the high accumulations observed has brought down trees and power lines and has the potential to cause roof collapse – though damage and disruption are not to the extent of the two earlier winter storms in February. There are also reports of fallen trees causing damage to properties and cars. The storm has caused disruption at all New York airports with the cancellation of over 1,000 flights. Airports in Philadelphia and New Jersey have also experienced flights cancellations. One person has been killed as a result of a tree collapsing under the weight of snow in Central Park, New York. As of 09:00 UTC on Friday, 26 February the storm was located over New York City where it is forecast to linger into the weekend. Whilst the worst of the storm is thought to have passed, the National Weather Service has winter storm warnings for the region (with freezing rain possible) which are expected to remain in place through Saturday morning. According to FEMA no states or regions have issued emergency management or disaster declarations.