Major Hurricane Earl has re-strengthened to category four status in the last 24 hours, as it continues to track north-northwest, threatening portions of the U.S. Mid Atlantic coast. A direct landfall is not forecast by the NHC “best track” at this stage but Earl could still bring hurricane force winds to the outer banks of North Carolina as it bypasses within the next 24 hours as a cat 3 hurricane. However, the NHC cone of uncertainty still includes the possibility that Earl’s center could just brush the Outer Banks on Friday morning: though the onland extent of the cone of uncertainty over North Carolina has reduced since yesterday. Tropical storm force winds are likely to be experienced along the U.S. east coast as the system moves north over the subsequent 24 hours, brushing Cape Cod in 48 hours time – though Earl is forecast to weaken as it heads further north, and could be as low as a category 1 or category 2 as it passes Cape Cod and Rhode Island on Saturday morning. Based on today’s forecasts, nearly $4bn of exposure lies within the NHC cone of uncertainty over North Carolina. RMS has conducted more exposure analyses within the NHC forecast cones along all of Earl’s forecast track, which are available via today’s cat update, as well as an updated suite of stochastic tracks. At 09:00 UTC on Thursday, 2 September, the center of Earl was located around 410 miles (660 km) south-southwest of Cape Hatteras, North Carolina and approximately 870 miles (1,400 km) south-southwest of Nantucket, Massachusetts, with maximum sustained winds of 145 mph (230 km/hr) - the equivalent of a category four storm on the Saffir Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale (SSHWS). Earl is a large hurricane with hurricane force winds and tropical force winds extending outwards up to 90 miles (150km) and 230 miles (370 km) respectively from the center of Earl (predominantly to the northeast and southeast of the system). The latest forecasts indicate that Earl will turn to the north and then towards the north-northeast within the next 24 hours. The storm is projected to pass approximately 60 miles (97 km) east of Cape Hatteras, North Carolina in the morning of Friday, 3 September as a category 3 hurricane, however a slight deviation to the west means that North Carolina and potentially other States to the north could be Earl’s large extent of hurricane force winds. The NHC have instigated hurricane warnings for Bogue Inley, North Carolina northeastward to the North Carolina/Virginia border including the Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds. Hurricane warnings and tropical storm force warnings and watches are in effect along the U.S. Mid Atlantic coast. Given the areas at risk are high exposure regions RMS has released an updated suite of stochastic tracks based on the most recent forecast data that bypass the U.S. east coast. Clients can use these track to help estimate their potential losses and stress test their portfolios – more information about the tracks are provided in the Cat Update. Updated pre-landfall accumulation footprints have also been released based on the forecast extent of hurricane force winds. Clients with a valid user name and password can log into the Cat Updates area of rms.com to read the latest report and download these deliverables by clicking on the link on the left.

UPDATED 2 SEPTEMBER: Tropical Storm Fiona is tracking into the open Atlantic – the storm is expected to gradually weaken over the next 5 days during which time it is forecast to curve northward. There is a chance that Fiona could impact Bermuda at the end of the week. According to the National Hurricane Centre (NHC) at 03:00 UTC on Thursday, 2 September, the center of Fiona was located close to 21.8°N 64.1°W - over the Atlantic Ocean - about 270 miles (430 km) north-northeast of San Juan, Puerto Rico. The NHC reported that at this time Fiona had maximum sustained winds of 60 mph (95 km/hr) - the equivalent of a strong tropical storm on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale (SSHWS). The system was also reported to have a minimum central pressure of approximately 1000 mb, and was moving quickly towards the northwest at 23 mph (37 km/hr). Tropical storm force winds were extending outwards up to 140 miles (220km) from the center of Fiona (predominantly to the northeast of the system). Fiona is expected to continue tracking towards the northwest over the next 24 hours, before turning to the north. Model guidance is in good agreement as to this track over the forecast period (with the NHC official forecast track to the west of the guidance envelope). Two models do however show a path to the west – one tracking Fiona through the Greater Antilles and the other to make a landfall over southwest Florida but the NHC official guidance does not take Fiona on either of these paths. The system is expected to gradually weaken over the next few days, and model consensus is strong. It is possible Fiona will bypass Bermuda towards the end of the week but currently there are no warnings or watches in effect in association with Fiona. The system tracked at a distance to the east of the Leeward Islands that meant the extent of its tropical storm windfields did not impact the islands. RMS will continue to monitor Tropical Storm Fiona. Provided Fiona remains an oceanic storm, and does not pose a significant threat to Bermuda then this will be the last cat activity issued in relation to Fiona.

Tropical storm Gaston, the seventh named storm of the 2010 hurricane season was declared at 21:00 UTC on Wednesday, 1 September. Gaston is the fourth named storm to form in the last eleven days and was another Cape Verde storm forming from an active wave off the coast of Africa. As of 03:00 UTC Gaston was located near 13.4N 37.7W about 935 miles (1500 km) west of the Cape Verde Islands with maximum sustained winds of 40 mph (65 km/hr) and a minimum central pressure of 1005 mb. Gaston is moving in a westward direction with a forward speed near 12 mph (19 km/hr) and this motion is expected to continue over the next few days, potentially with a decrease in forward speed. There is quite a large spread in the model track guidance, however most models favour a westward course which would mean Gaston would approach the Leeward Islands at the beginning of next week. There is also a high degree of uncertainty associated with the intensity guidance. Whilst most models indicate that Gaston will intensify over the next 5 days, there is a large spread with regards to how much intensification there will be, ranging from a weak tropical storm to a category 3 hurricane in 5 days time. The NHC are calling for a gradual increase in strength due to favourable environmental conditions, particularly over the next 48 hours and they suggest that Gaston will become a hurricane over the weekend. RMS will closely monitor Gaston’s progression across the Atlantic and this report will be updated by 10am BST on Friday, 3 September.

UPDATED 2 SEPTEMBER: Typhoon Kompasu made landfall close to the North-South Korean border as the equivalent of a category 1 hurricane late on Wednesday, 1 September. As of 03:00 UTC on Thursday, 2 September, the center of Typhoon Kompasu was located close to 38.6N 128.0E, approximately 90 miles (150 km) northeast of Seoul, South Korea and 125 miles east-southeast of Pyongyang, North Korea; just north of the Korean border. The Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) reported that, over the previous 6 hours, Kompasu had been tracking towards the northwest with a forward speed of approximately 25 mph (40 km/hr), and had maximum sustained winds of 75 mph (120 km/hr) – the equivalent of a weak category 1 storm on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale (SSHWS), with gusts of up to 90 mph (150 km/hr) Kompasu made landfall to the north of Seoul, south of the Korean border, sometime before 00:00 UTC on Thursday. At landfall, Kompasu was the equivalent of a weak category 1 hurricane on the SSHWS with maximum sustained winds of 75 mph (120 km/hr), having reduced in intensity somewhat over the previous 24 hours from a low category 3 storm. According to reports there have been three fatalities in Seoul, where trees, power lines and street lights have been downed. Power has been cut off to more than a million homes and more than 100 international flights have been delayed or cancelled. Services on subway lines and railway routes have been temporarily suspended. Forecasters are predicting that up to 6 inches (150 mm) of rainfall accumulations may be bought to parts of the Korean peninsula during Thursday. Previous to its Korean landfall, Kompasu impacts have been felt across the region, 86 oil workers at an oil platform in the Pinghu oilfield in the East China Sea were evacuated and in Japan, over 200 domestic and international flights were cancelled – affecting over 15,000 passengers. The system is expected to exit the Korean peninsula in the next few hours into the Sea of Japan, before weakening to the equivalent of tropical storm on the SSHWS and tracking towards northern Honshu and southern Hokkaido, Japan. As Kompasu tracks over the Sea of Japan, it is expected to become absorbed into the mid-latitude westerlies and begin extratropical transition, reaching Japan (in approximately 36 hours’ time) as a much weaker extratropical cyclone. Non-life insurance penetration in Korea is around 7%, but penetration in the household market is significantly lower, with only 640,000 household policies in relation to 16 million households (in 2008). RMS will continue to monitor Kompasu.

Lionrock has weakened slightly, is turning away from Taiwan and is forecast to make landfall over south east China in approximately 24 hours’ time. As of 03:00 UTC on Wednesday, 1 September Tropical Storm Lionrock was located near 22.6N 119.5E approximately 50 miles (80 km) southwest of Kaohiung, Taiwan with maximum sustained winds near 52 mph (83 km/hr) – the equivalent of a tropical storm on the Saffir Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale (SSHWS). Over the previous 6 hours Lionrock has been moving in a north-northeast direction at about 8 mph (13 km/hr) and is expected to track progressively more northwards and north-northwestwards over the next 24 hours. According to the JTWC, on this trajectory, Lionrock will make landfall over the southeast coast of China in around 24 hours’ time somewhere between Shanwei City, Guangdong province, and Xiamen City, Fujian province. This northwards and north-northwestwards motion should also ensure that Lionrock will not make landfall over southern Taiwan, as was previously a possibility. The Taiwanese Central Weather Bureau have forecast that rainfall accumulations could exceed 5 inches (130 mm) in parts of the central, southern, southeastern and eastern Taiwan. According to the JTWC forecast, Lionrock will reduce in strength slightly before making landfall as weak tropical storm. RMS will continue to monitor Lionrock and will update this report on Thursday, 2 September.

UPDATED 27 AUGUST. Between 03:00 UTC and 06:00 UTC on Friday, 27 August Danielle has reached major hurricane status (category three) – becoming the most intense storm of the 2010 hurricane season thus far. According to the National Hurricane Centre (NHC) at 06:00 UTC on Friday, 27 August, the center of Danielle was located close to 26.2°N 58.1°W - over the open waters of the Atlantic Ocean about 585 miles (940 km)southeast of Bermuda. The NHC report that at this time Danielle had maximum sustained winds of 120 mph (195 km/hr) - the equivalent of a category three hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale (SSHWS). The system was also reported to have a minimum central pressure of approximately 975 mb, and was moving towards the northwest at 12 mph (19 km/hr). Hurricane force winds and tropical force winds were extending outwards up to 50 miles (85km) and 205 miles (335 km) respectively from the center of Danielle. Danielle is expected to turn towards the north-northwest and north over the next few days. On this track the NHC official forecast sees the centre of Danielle pass well to the east of Bermuda. (Under this forecast track Danielle would be far enough east of the island to mean that tropical storm force winds would not impact the island). Forecast models are in extremely good agreement as to this track over the next 48 hours, and continue in tight agreement of a track recurving the system out into the Atlantic over the forecast period. Over the 18 hours prior to 06:00 UTC today (Friday, 27 August) Danielle has developed an eye, which is now clearly visible in satellite images. Recent infrared imagery has shown that the eye of Danielle has contracted and become more distinct – a sign of strengthening. Hurricane Danielle is forecast to strengthen further over the next 24 to 36 hours, during which time the NHC are forecasting maximum sustained winds to reach the equivalent of category four SSWHS status. A category four hurricane is the maximum intensity reached by the model runs. By the end of the current forecast period the hurricane should weaken as it encounters cooler water at higher latitudes and an increase in wind shear – this scenario is evident in the NHC official forecast. As of 06:00 UTC on Friday, 27 August no coastal watches or warnings are in effect in association with Danielle. The Bermuda Weather Service have issued a small craft warning valid through this evening (Friday, 27 August) through Saturday (Saturday, 28 August). Swells from Danielle are expected to affect portions of the United States east coast as of today and Bermuda over the weekend. RMS will continue to monitor Major Hurricane Danielle. Provided Danielle remains an oceanic storm, and follows the current NHC official forecast track this will be the last cat activity issued in relation to Danielle.

UPDATED 25 AUGUST. At 15:00 UTC on Sunday, 22 August, a tropical depression (Nine-E) offshore Mexico in the Eastern Pacific developed into the sixth named storm of the 2010 Eastern Pacific Hurricane Season – Tropical Storm Frank. Over the last few days the system has moved (west-northwest) parallel to the coast of southern Mexico with little change in strength. As of 09:00 UTC on Wednesday, 25 August Frank is tracking away from the Mexican coast, and has strengthened slightly. According to the National Hurricane Centre (NHC) at 09:00 UTC on Wednesday, 25 August, the center of Frank was located close to 16.2°N 103.6°W, around 200 miles (320 km) south-southwest of Manzanillo, Mexico. The NHC report that at this time that Frank had maximum sustained winds of 70 mph (110km/hr), a minimum central pressure of approximately 991 mb, and was moving towards the west-northwest at 9 mph (15 km/hr). At 09:00 UTC tropical storm force winds were extending outwards up to 70 miles (110km) from the center of Frank - Frank is however far enough offshore to mean that tropical storm force winds are not currently impacting the coastline. The storm is expected to continue to track towards the west-northwest through to Friday, 27 August - which would see the system move away from the southwestern cost of Mexico. Model guidances are in good agreement with this track, forecasting Frank to maintain its west-northwest track throughout the forecast period. The NHC has a high confidence in this track forecast. The NHC are calling for some strengthening of Tropical Storm Frank today (Wednesday, 24 August), and for the system to become a weak category one hurricane on the Saffir Simspon Hurricane Wind Scale (SSHWS) later today. Beyond 48 hours the system is expected to weaken. The general trend in the model intensity guidances is a steady weakening of Frank, beginning in the next 12 to 24 hours. A category one hurricane is the maximum intensity reached by the model runs. Tropical Storm Frank has tracked far enough away from the coast for the Government of Mexico to remove all tropical storm warnings, and the system no longer poses a heavy rain threat. RMS will continue to monitor the system, however given the NHC forecast track (and the certainty associated with this) this will be the last RMS activity posted on Frank, unless there is significant change to the forecast track.

UPDATED 25 AUGUST. Tropical Strom Mindulle made landfall over Vietnam’s north-central coast at around 12:00 UTC on Tuesday, 24 August – becoming the second storm to make landfall over Vietnam this year. According to the Joint Typhoon Warning Centre (JTWC) Mindulle had maximum sustained winds of around 46 mph (74 km/hr) at landfall, classifying the system as a tropical storm on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale (SSHWS), and a tropical storm on the Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA)’s Tropical Cyclone Intensity Scale. Mindulle made landfall south of the city of Vinh, and around 120 miles (190 km) south-southwest of the Vietnamese capital Hanoi. Online reports indicate that as many as 9 people have died and a further 10 are missing as a consequence of the heavy rain and strong winds associated with Mindulle. Vietnam’s National Committee for Flood and Storm Control has reported as much as 11 inches (270mm) of rainfall accumulation in localized areas close to the landfall location. The Government of Vietnam has reported that floods have submerged 96 miles² (250 sq km²) of rice fields and that the storm destroyed the roofs of 4,112 buildings. Online reports, pertaining to be information from Vietnam’s disaster officials suggest the area of damaged rice fields to be closer to 140 miles² (360 km²). Reports also suggest that as many as 31,000 homes have been affected by the storm. Numerous fishing vessels have been reportedly sunk. At 20:00 UTC on Tuesday, 24 August Vietnam’s National Centre for Hydro-Meteorological Forecasting was reporting Mindulle to be located at 19.4°N, 104.0°E, on the border with Laos, at which time the system was recording maximum sustained winds of 23 mph (37 km/hr). Mindulle is expected to dissipate during the course of today (Wednesday, August 25). Heavy rain may continue to cause flooding and landslides in mountainous areas of Vietnam, and potentially in Laos and northern Thailand.

UPDATED 11 AUGUST Tropical Storm Dianmu made landfall over the southern coast of South Korea within the six hours prior to 00:00 UTC on Wednesday, 11 August. According to Korea’s National Emergency Management the storm has resulted in 3 deaths, and torrential rains associated with the system have flooded 100 homes and resulted in flight cancellations. As of 00:00 UTC on Wednesday, 11 August, the center of Tropical Storm Dianmu was located close to 35.2°N 127.9°E over South Korea approximately 70 miles (110 km) west of Pusan (South Korea’s second largest city). At this time the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) reported that Dianmu had maximum sustained winds of 46 mph (74 km/hr), classifying the system as a weak strength tropical storm on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane scale, and a tropical storm on the Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA)’s Tropical Cyclone Intensity scale. The JTWC also reported that tropical storm strength winds were extending outwards from the center of Dianmu up to 50 miles (80 km), mainly to the northeast and southeast of the system. According to the JTWC, during the previous 6 hours, Dianmu had tracked towards the northeast with a forward speed of 23 mph (37 km/hr). The system is forecast to continue tracking towards the northeast over the next 36 hours during which time it will track over the Sea of Japan, before making a second landfall over northern Japan on Thursday, 12 August. The Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) is consistent with (the storms current position and) this forecast track. Over the past 6 hours the system has fragmented due to interaction with South Korea’s southern terrain and exposure to increased vertical wind shear – however the storm’s intensity has not significantly deteriorated. Despite moving within an area of moderate winds shear the JTWC are expecting Dianmu to maintain tropical storm intensity, primarily due to warm sea surface temperatures that the system will be tracking over, and to be the equivalent of a ‘weak’ tropical storm on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane scale on landfall over northern Honshu, Japan. The system will however, begin extratropical transition during the next 36 hours and is expected to become fully extratropical within 48 hours. Korea’s Meteorological Agency reported that in northwestern Seoul 120 mm of rainfall, associated with Dianmu, fell within 3 hours on Tuesday, 10 August. As of Wednesday, 11 August the Korean Emergency Management Agency have reported 3 deaths, with 100 homes flooded leaving 200 people stranded. The agency has also reported that 74 flights were cancelled due to heavy rain conditions over South Korea and 91 ferry trips were suspended. According to the Korean Meteorological Agency the storm is expected to bring further heavy rain to the south of the country as to tracks towards the Sea of Japan. The Chinese Meteorological Agency reported heavy rain from Dianmu over the northeast coast of China during Tuesday, 10 August as the system tracked to the east over the East China Sea. Satellite images show an area of heavy rain, concentrated around the system and a band of heavy rain stretching away from the system to the northeast. The JMA has issued heavy rain warnings for 8 prefectures in northern Honshu, with flood warning for 6 of the prefectures. In 2006 Typhoon Ewiniar made landfall close to the landfall location of Dianmu, though as a stronger system than Dianmu. Ewiniar is reported to have caused damage (in 2006 of) up to USD1.4 billion. According to AXCO, Korea has high levels of under-insurance and non-insurance (particularly in the domestic sector) which normally limit insured typhoon and flood losses to between 2% and 3% of total economic losses. RMS will continue to monitor Dianmu’s progress

UPDATED 9 AUGUST A tropical depression (Seven-E) that formed over the Eastern Pacific Ocean, off the southern coast of Mexico was upgraded to a tropical storm at 21:00 UTC on Friday, 6 August becoming the fifth named storm of the Eastern Pacific 2010 season – Tropical Strom Estelle. According to the National Hurricane Center (NHC) at 09:00 UTC on Monday, 9 August, the center of Estelle was located close to 17.7°N, 112.1°W, approximately 385 miles (620 km) south-southwest of the southern tip of Baja California, Mexico. The NHC report that at this time Estelle had maximum sustained winds of 45 mph (75 km/hr), a minimum central pressure of approximately 1001 mb, and was moving towards the west at 5 mph (7 km/hr). At 09:00 UTC tropical storm force winds were extending outwards up to 45 miles (75 km) from the center of Estelle. Estelle is forecast to continue slowly tracking to the west through Monday - which would see the system remain offshore - turning towards the west-southwest in around 18 hours time. Forecast models are in general agreement with the system tracking away from the Mexican Pacific Coast, although three model sees the system take a move northerly track and towards the end of the current forecast period make landfall over the north of the Baja Peninsula, Mexico. The NHC is forecasting that the system will maintain its current intensity for the next 12 hours, before weakening to a tropical depression within the next 24 hours. (The NHC is current reporting a 52% change that maximum sustained winds will be of tropical depression strength by 06:00 UTC on Tuesday, 10 August). The majority of the forecast models predict a gradual weakening of the system, although the GFDL and HWRF maintain Estelle as a weak tropical cyclone through the current forecast period. As of 09:00 UTC on Monday, 9 August there are no coastal watches or warnings in effect in association with this system. The NHC has stated that the system poses no threat to mainland Mexico. RMS will continue to monitor the system.