Tropical Storm Estelle
Posting Date: 10 August 2010
Location: offshore southwest Mexico, Eastern Pacific
Peril: Windstorm
UPDATED 9 AUGUST
A tropical depression (Seven-E) that formed over the Eastern Pacific Ocean, off the southern coast of Mexico was upgraded to a tropical storm at 21:00 UTC on Friday, 6 August becoming the fifth named storm of the Eastern Pacific 2010 season – Tropical Strom Estelle.
According to the National Hurricane Center (NHC) at 09:00 UTC on Monday, 9 August, the center of Estelle was located close to 17.7°N, 112.1°W, approximately 385 miles (620 km) south-southwest of the southern tip of Baja California, Mexico. The NHC report that at this time Estelle had maximum sustained winds of 45 mph (75 km/hr), a minimum central pressure of approximately 1001 mb, and was moving towards the west at 5 mph (7 km/hr). At 09:00 UTC tropical storm force winds were extending outwards up to 45 miles (75 km) from the center of Estelle.
Estelle is forecast to continue slowly tracking to the west through Monday - which would see the system remain offshore - turning towards the west-southwest in around 18 hours time. Forecast models are in general agreement with the system tracking away from the Mexican Pacific Coast, although three model sees the system take a move northerly track and towards the end of the current forecast period make landfall over the north of the Baja Peninsula, Mexico.
The NHC is forecasting that the system will maintain its current intensity for the next 12 hours, before weakening to a tropical depression within the next 24 hours. (The NHC is current reporting a 52% change that maximum sustained winds will be of tropical depression strength by 06:00 UTC on Tuesday, 10 August). The majority of the forecast models predict a gradual weakening of the system, although the GFDL and HWRF maintain Estelle as a weak tropical cyclone through the current forecast period.
As of 09:00 UTC on Monday, 9 August there are no coastal watches or warnings in effect in association with this system. The NHC has stated that the system poses no threat to mainland Mexico.
RMS will continue to monitor the system.
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